Tripwires to a Market Crash

By Cam Hui

The title, which refers to a possible “market crash”, may seem untimely on an occasion when ES futures are deeply in the green, but the newsflow from Europe is getting more and more confusing.

I would like to create a framework for assessing the likely future course of the markets rather than to just come to a prepackaged conclusion. On one hand, Fitch downgrade Portugal last week, then Standard and Poors downgraded Belgium soon after, which are bearish for the market. On the other hand, Bloomberg reported that the IMF is readying a loan facility of up to €600 billion to Italy, though the story leaves many unanswered questions and sound more like a trial balloon than an actual concrete plan. Moreover, there are reports that eurobonds are back on the table.

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