Unstoppable $100 Trillion Bond Market Renders Models Useless


(Photo Credit: Scott Eells/Bloomberg)

By Susanne Walker and Liz Capo McCormick

If the insatiable demand for bonds has upended the models you use to value them, you’re not alone.

Just last month, researchers at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York retooled a gauge of relative yields on Treasuries, casting aside three decades of data that incorporated estimates for market rates from professional forecasters. Priya Misra, the head of U.S. rates strategy at Bank of America Corp., says a risk metric she’s relied on hasn’t worked since March.

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