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31 liquidity seizes up. We have seen repeated warnings from regulators about what could go wrong with ETFs. In assessing preferences between ETFs and other investment options I recommend that you keep the inexperience of ETFs in mind. Runs on Mutual Funds If interest rates go negative or start to rise fixed income mutual funds could experience heavy redemptions. Fixed income managers have had the wind at their backs with falling interest rates and a long-term bull market in bonds. This has been a 36-year-long bull market. Managers do not have a lot of experience with rates going negative or rising quickly. As rates have dropped and concerns about the financial system have grown bond funds have grown. If and when these funds begin to shrink things could head in the opposite direction quickly. You will want to be in funds that inspire confidence in investors so that redemptions do not turn into runs. Governments Go Cashless Oppose this one with all your might. If it happens we are in a zero-privacy world. Local liquidity will diminish further as we are forced into surveillance capitalism mechanisms that will use private data in invasive and lawless ways. This a compelling reason to use your re- sources to permanently lower overhead and the need for cash such as retiring debt to maintain cash in the currency of jurisdictions that remain cash-full and to maintain a core position in gold and silver coins. The Euro Fails This scenario would be painful but it would mean new energy for the US dollar market share for the time being. Do not assume that severe pressure on or the failure of the euro will be positive for gold and silver. Europe is Asias number 1 custom- er. If falling imports of Chinese or Indian goods and services in Europe trigger lower growth rates we could see China and India shift to net sellers of gold and silver. My Government Goes Bankrupt If your government borrows in fiat currency that it can print money out of thin air please stop worrying that your government is going to go bankrupt. It cant go bankrupt. All of its obligations can be satisfied for free. In- stead start doing scenario designs for dealing with currency debasement war and totali- tarianism that will result from a weakening economic situation. However if your government or national companies and institutions borrow in a currency that the government does not print and it is carrying a heavy debt load you face some serious cash management risks and may want to consider holding some cash outside your home currency. Bank Run httpsen.wikipedia.orgwikiBank_run